Future Technology Myths

              What will the world look like 10 years from now? Forty years from now? Will the continuation of Moore's Law eventually allow us to have a society run by automated robots? Will we have conquered global warming and celebrate as a people as we approach the much-vaunted prospect of the singularity? Some futurists, the people who deal in this kind of speculation, have made                             predictions of this nature, but there are also those who say these forecasts are inaccurate. In this article, we'll take a look at some popular ideas about the future of technology that are likely myths.

            Predicting future trends or developments, especially in a dynamic field like technology, is inherently inexact, but it is possible to make some informed guesses. Of course, it's also possible to argue the opposite point of view regarding the reality of some of these technologies, but in these cases, there's enough evidence out there, particularly from experts, to diagnose them as myths.

Let's start with one of the great fabled machines of the post-industrial age: the flying car.

Soon we’ll All Be Driving Flying Cars

              The flying car has been prophesied for decades. It's one of the holy grails of the futuristic, utopian society, where everyone gets to zip around through the air and land easily, quietly and safely wherever he or she wants.You've probably seen videos of flying-car prototypes, taking off from the ground, hovering and possibly crashing. But the first "autoplane" was actually unveiled in 1917, and many similar efforts have followed. Henry Ford predicted the flying car was coming -- in 1940 -- and there have been numerous false alarms ever since.

               A decade into the 21st century, we don't seem to be any closer, despite what you might read on gadget blogs. Because funding dried up, NASA abandoned its contest for inventors to create a "Personal Air Vehicle," and there doesn't seem to be another government agency, except perhaps the secretive DARPA, ready to take on the project.

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                There are simply too many challenges in the way of a flying car becoming widely adopted. Cost, flight paths and regulations, safety, potential use in terrorism, fuel efficiency, training pilots/drivers, landing, noise, opposition from the automobile and transportation industries -- all stand in the way of a legitimate flying car. Also, these vehicles will likely have to be able to operate as cars on regular roads, posing another logistical challenge.

                In fact, many of the so-called flying cars that are being hawked as the real thing are simply roadable aircrafts -- a sort of plane/car hybrid that is not capable of, say, making a short trip to school to drop off the kids. Plus, they're far too expensive. One such vehicle, the Terrafugia Transition, set for a release in 2011 or later, is expected to cost $200,000.

Moore's Law Will Always Hold True

                Moore's Law is generally taken to mean that the number of transistors on a chip -- and by extension, processing power -- doubles every two years. In reality, Gordon Moore, the computer scientist who originated Moore's Law in 1965, was talking about the economic costs of chip production and not the scientific achievements behind advances in chip design.

Moore believed that the costs of chip production would halve annually for the next 10 years but may not be sustainable afterwards.The limit to Moore's Law may then be reached economically instead of scientifically.

                  Several prominent computer experts have contended that Moore's Law cannot last more than two decades. Why is Moore's Law doomed? Because chips have become much more expensive to produce as transistors have become smaller.

                   One analyst has predicted that by 2014, transistors will be 20 nanometers in size but that any further reductions in chip size will be too expensive for mass production.

For comparison, as of summer 2009, only Samsung and Intel have invested in making 22-nanometer chips.The factories that produce these chips cost billions of dollars. Globalfoundries' Fab 2 factory, set to begin production in New York in 2012, will cost $4.2 billion to build. Few companies have those kinds of resources, and Intel has said that a company must have $9 billion in yearly revenue to compete in the cutting-edge chip market

                That same aforementioned analyst believes that companies will attempt to make the most out of current technologies before investing in new, more expensive, smaller chip. So while the end of Moore's Law may limit the rate at which we add transistors to chips, that does not necessarily mean that other innovations will prevent the creation of faster, more advanced computers.

                      What will the world look like 10 years from now? Forty years from now? Will the continuation of Moore's Law eventually allow us to have a society run by automated robots? Will we have conquered global warming and celebrate as a people as we approach the much-vaunted prospect of the singularity? Some futurists, the people who deal in this kind of speculation, have made predictions of this nature, but there are also those who say these forecasts are inaccurate. In this article, we'll take a look at some popular ideas about the future of technology that are likely myths.

                            Predicting future trends or developments, especially in a dynamic field like technology, is inherently inexact, but it is possible to make some informed guesses. Of course, it's also possible to argue the opposite point of view regarding the reality of some of these technologies, but in these cases, there's enough evidence out there, particularly from experts, to diagnose them as myths.