European holiday destinations could become hotspots for the nasty viral illness thanks to climate change, experts have warned.
If global warming continues on its current trajectory, the risk of dengue fever in Europe is likely to increase, they say.
Mosquitoes that carry and transmit the virus thrive in warm and humid conditions – which could one day include large areas in southern Europe.
The new study was based on data collected in Mexico, where dengue is a common problem.
Researchers looked at the occurrence of the viral illness and climate variables such as temperature, humidity and rainfall, along with other factors.
They then combined their findings with information about EU countries, to model which areas are most likely to be at risk, according to the study, published in the journal BMC Public Health.
‘Our study has shown that the risk of dengue fever is likely to increase in Europe under climate change, but that almost all of the excess risk will fall on the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the North Eastern part of Italy, particularly the Po Valley,’ said lead researcher Professor Paul Hunter.
‘The exact incidence of dengue fever is dependent on several other factors, some of which we were unable to model at this stage.
‘Nevertheless, public health agencies in high risk areas need to plan, implement and evaluate active reporting of mosquito populations and clinical surveillance by local doctors.
‘Work should be carried out to improve awareness of the increased risk amongst health practitioners and the general public.’
The scientists said that while Mexico has less variation in weather during the different seasons than Europe, more work could take this into account.
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Dengue is a viral infection carried and spread by mosquitoes
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